ON SPACE is a series of articles by Tim Coffin, Brigadier General (Ret.) on National Security Space issues facing the U.S. and international community. General Coffin is Executive Director for Aerospace & Defense for Oliver Investment Banking.
Will the path you are on take you to the destinations we need?
The U.S. narrative on threats in space is China, China, China. (I will talk about Russia’s reckless space activities in another post). China is on a quest to supplant the United States as the global space superpower. This week China launched its first 18 of its planned 15,000 satellite G60 satellite communications constellation. While the initial constellation will only have 1,296 satellites it begs the question: How is it that China moved from being a lagging space power to a near peer competitor in such a short period of time? Whether we like it or not, the United States success, s trains and motivates our allies AND our potential adversaries. They watch and learn from our prolific use of space, in military action and commerce around the world. Lessons learned from watching the U.S. military use of space, shape the fears and aspirations of China and other nations. United States space activity in conflict operations shapes adversary behavior. A myriad of other U.S. commercial activities also influence China’s aspirations. Our activity shapes China’s perceptions of what they need to achieve the Chinese Communist Party’s desired end state. A good example of these “other” commercial activities is the launch of 96 rockets by a one U.S. company last year and the more than 6,000 communications satellites it has on orbit providing global connectivity. In the U.S. we see these capabilities as successful commercial launch and satellite communications enterprises. China on the other hand views these private sector activities, through their own lens, as threats to China (in China all commercial activities, by law, can be appropriated by the communist party for their desired needs and ends).
So what does China want, and how are they going to get it? A recently retired four-star General would tell you that for the most part, our competitors’ desires and plans are not a secret. If we read and study what China’s leadership are saying we can get a reasonably good picture of what they are going to do and why.
China clearly stated their desire to:
- Have a position of great respect in the global community.
- Be the dominant power in the Western Pacific.
- China’s leadership declared that they will reunite Taiwan and according to CIA director William Burns, President Xi ordered the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready by 2027(the 100 year anniversary of the founding of the PLA) to conduct an invasion of Taiwan by force.
- Be the Global Space leader
- Use China’s space industry as a technology and economic driver
- Expand space operations beyond earth to: cislunar orbits, establish an outpost on the moon, and extract off-earth resources (moon and beyond).
Beyond aspirations, truth data can be found by following the money, programs and the delivery of capabilities. China now has the world’s largest Navy, boasts a rapidly modernizing Army, enjoys fifth generation fighters for its Air Force, has more ICBM missile launchers than the United States and has an array of thousands of ballistic and hypersonic missiles capable of striking throughout the Western Pacific. As General Gagnon (Space Operations Deputy for Intelligence) recently stated, China increased their on orbit assets by 500% placing over 200 satellites in orbit each year with half of those satellites designed to detect, track and target U.S. and allied forces. China funded, designed, developed and fielded capabilities in space able to threaten U.S. and allied satellites and space operations, and conversely have fielded capabilities in space that can threaten the operation of our forces on land, in the air and at sea.
So what are our United States objectives? I would say it is our desire is to:
- Remain the leading global space power (military, civil and commercial)
- Retain and grow our industrial space economy and capabilities
- Protect our military and commercial Space assets and enable freedom of maneuver (unhindered launch, repositioning and operation).
- Ensure adversary (Chinese) Space assets are not used to target (disrupt, deny, degrade, deceive or destroy) U.S. and allied forces
- Deter adversary acts of aggression in space
So how does the U.S. achieve our Space goals given that China gets its own vote with sovereign space budgets, programs and forces? The U.S. has long been known as the “Arsenal of Democracy” and our financial strength coupled with an ability to ramp up industry production and forward deploy and sustain forces for conflict. Those strenths served us well in the past but global shifts are changing our relative advantage. In the case of China, it is unlikely that the U.S. can count on achieving an overwhelming numeric superiority in space as the way to meet its goals. The U.S. technical lead in Space remains intact but is on tenuous ground having significantly eroded.
In some cases U.S. and Chinese interests are directly at odds with each other. For example, both countries cannot be the global leader in space and China cannot be allowed to forcibly reunite Tawain while the U.S. maintains its commitments in the Western Pacific. Direct achievement of the U.S. goals are likely to drive an increase in Chinese space and counterspace capabilities resulting in a continued spiral of competition. This spiral does not result in increased safety, security, stability or long-term sustainability of the space domain and while our rhetoric about space may not be the driving factor in China’s investments, bellicose posturing has not moved us towards achieving our national objectives. This is problematic in multiple ways. For one, without the direct and forceful public descriptions of China’s plans and activities that threaten U.S. forces and commerce, Congress will not focus on the problems and appropriate funding to address the problem.
To maintain our leadership in the international space community we need to have a laser focus and an unprecedented level of cooperation between government, industry and our allies for our common interests. Leading in key technologies is a key foundation stone to maintaining the critical edge we need. Those technologies include but are not limited to: (no particular order)
- Responsive Launch capabilities
- ManTech (Manufacturing Technologies) including additive manufacturing (particularly for space qualified components), rapid fabrication, checkout and testing
- Software: true agile, continuous certification pipelines able to rapidly output certified and meaningful code changes at all classification levels. A subset of this is AI/ML code needed to move data manipulation and understanding faster than relying on humanly in the loop paradigms
- Miniaturized space flight hardware (thrusters, reaction wheels, star trackers, navigation subsystems for earth orbit and cislunar space
- Highly adaptive – wide band, RF modules (antenna’s, amplifiers, radios and subsystems)
- Quantum computing and Quantum resistant cyber encryption
- Advanced optics – to include large crystal growth and optical coatings
- Laser and High-Power microwave systems and subsystems for communications, sensing and High energy applications.
In conclusion we need to relook what our desired end state should be and align our ways (our approach) and means (funding and programs) with that desired objective. Regardless of those adjustments in end state, the imperatives are that we go fast, that we operate efficiently and effectively. We cannot waste time, money and intellectual talent on programs that do not deliver the capabilities that support our objectives. For the government, that means we need to cut legacy funding and programs and move on to the next generation of systems. For industry this is the time to make hard assessments of your current capabilities and core capacities. Reshaping to meet the rapid pace requires spinning off elements that are distractors to your core business, acquisition of capabilities you are missing or need to robust in your portfolio. Setting the conditions for success requires bold and informed action.
While the situation is challenging and intense, open and focused collaborative efforts between government and industry with bold and innovative action can insure we move towards our national security objectives and not away.
General Tim Coffin (Ret) is available to help you develop your customer base to meet our national security objectives and grow your company to meet your exit goals.
